Goals and the Paths Forward
Most media coverage on COVID and Climate Change have focused on the “crisis”, and much less on solutions. One reason many media outlets have failed to highlight the prescribed paths forward, is because they emphasize top-down constraints to limit human impacts on the world. In the United States, COVID and “Green New Deal” leadership often view people themselves as the problem – rather than the source of solutions. Policy directives are focused on restrictions. Citizens must to everything possible to limit our movements, socially distance, use less energy, lower our collective carbon footprint, and sacrifice to save ourselves and future generations.
However, if we take a step back and look ahead, there are multiple paths forward to achieve the goal of a healthier and greener future.
For Climate Change central policy directives outlined in The Paris Agreement and advocated by the World Economic Forum clearly target a decline of 1.5 degrees centigrade by 2050. Can we use the 1.5 degree change as a goal? Yes…but we should also understand it cannot be effectively measured with any real degree of accuracy. It is a general target, using a model subject to a multitude of variables and inaccuracies. In addition, we have no concrete means to track towards that 1.5 degree target. Instead, we must rely on targeting the underlying variables such as carbon emissions – with the expectation it will lead from “A to B” average temperatures over time. With the complexity of the problem, can we really expect a central governing organization to tell us the best path? -especially since the model forecasts 10-80 years into the future?
History is littered with the debris of top down organizational failures in which governments blindly or naively implement orchestrated social system and economic directives. While imperfect, the invisible hand of our traditional capitalist economic system has helped create the most free and successful society in history. These freedoms also encourage risk taking and innovations which have propelled our civilization forward.
In the US and the world, it seems we are on the precipice of potential redirection and reversion to centralized, planned government led economies. Recently, governments have had the ability to tell us what “non-essential” businesses should close – and who should not go to school or work. Unfortunately, these measures also serve to distort the basic economic system which has made us so strong. While the effortless benefits of a maternalistic government may be attractive to some in the short term, the reliance on an autocratic elite to guide us forward subjects society to gross misalignments of resources and controls.
It is difficult for anyone to predict the future – even with the wealth of information governments and societies can harness today. The COVID models predicting deaths and impacts far exceeding what was realized is just the latest significant example. In many cases, the COVID “cure” was far worse than the disease with prolonged school closures and other drastic measures. Implementing more robust measurement systems, information sharing, and creative solutions could have been much more effective. Looking back, it is clear we did not take the best path through the COVID “crisis”.
There are, and will be, many paths as we take steps forward. We will also discover new paths as we go. Prosperity and innovation will lead the way as humanity solves problems – for ourselves, our families, our communities, our nations, our environment, and our planet.
Not leaving the house safeguards against most vehicle accidents.
Life is full of risks. Some are known…many are unknown, or unseen. With COVID-19 the world has been exposed to a new and significant threat to our wellbeing. Climate Change has also been presented as a monumental risk capable of “end of world” catastrophic effects – just around the corner. The “invisible enemies” are all around us and we are now faced with new levels of perceived risk in our societies.
For COVID-19 the risk mitigating guidance has primarily suggested limiting activity – staying home, not socializing, or going to school, or work, or the gym, or out for dinner, or exposing ourselves unnecessarily for any reason. Also, when we do go out, we should defend ourselves and others by shielding our faces and bodies from the unknown enemy.
With Climate Change, we have been told we need to fundamentally change the way our societies use and utilize energy. We need to minimize our footprints and limit activity as we “progress” toward a new “zero-carbon” world. These measures are necessary according to the official guidelines from the scientific elite who have the answers… In the US and much of the world, these narratives have been pushed down through the media and policy leaders for months and years.
By limiting activity, many people have undoubtedly reduced their risk of contracting COVID-19…but at what costs? Are there more pragmatic solutions which would enable society to function without as much disruption? Also, with Climate Change, will we be subjected to similar life altering regulations and restrictions?
Most of us don’t think twice before leaving the house to go to work, or run errands. This is despite the risks. By the very act of leaving a shelter or being active, we are putting ourselves at greater risk… but that is also life. Life happens everywhere – outside, in the sun, at schools, at work, at the gym, at restaurants, at bars and nightclubs, at the movies and concerts, at dinner tables, around people… everywhere. By insulating ourselves against the unknown virus, what are we giving up? By limiting are fossil fuel use are we really preventing a climate catastrophe? At what immediate cost? Are there other less disruptive solutions? Is it really a “crisis”? Are these drastic trade-offs necessary?
Many studies have shown our physical health and wellbeing as humans is integrated with our emotional and psychological health. Even the basic foundation of aging is determined by our health and wellbeing as much as any chronological constructs. People need sunshine. People need to work…and to play. Children need school and real interactions with other kids. We need to laugh. We need to socialize.
As the top down fear-mongering crisis narratives of COVID-19 and Climate Change continue to play out through the focused efforts of the centralized media machines…we need to take a step back, step outside, look around, and realize life is a risk. That is living. There will always be trade-offs. We are all in this together. We, as societies, have a much better chance to discover innovative solutions and change with world through decentralized prosperity, optimism, and creativity – not through centralized top-down austerity, fear, and controls.
The Magic of Discovery
Throughout human civilization we have discovered new worlds, new inventions, and new medical breakthroughs by chance. They are called “miracles” or “surprise discoveries”…and they happen all the time. Just two days ago, scientists surprisingly discovered life 900 meters below an Antarctic ice shelf:
“To their astonishment, they discovered a hidden ecosystem of sponges and other unidentified aquatic life forms living on the underside of a large boulder in the freezing, pitch-black depths.
It is the first time that immobile organisms such as these have ever been observed beneath the Antarctic ice shelf and their presence has left scientists scratching their heads.
“There’s all sorts of reasons they shouldn’t be there,” said researcher Huw Griffiths.”
https://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/news/343926/scientists-make-surprise-antarctic-life-discovery
Discovery is often a messy process. It can’t all be planned. Frequently, we find something different than we originally intended.
- Christopher Columbus discovered America (instead of reaching East Asia as he intended).
- Famed inventor Thomas Edison said ““I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” before “success”.
- Alexander Fleming made a chance discovery of penicillin from an already discarded, contaminated Petri dish.
- Wilhelm Conrad Roentgen discovered X-rays through chance and extensive experimentation
- The smallpox vaccine was discovered after some observations of dairy farmers’ immunity and experimentation with cow pox.
As COVID hit and the world was scrambling for answers, many doctors and scientists were told not to observe and not to experiment, but to obey and follow top down guidelines – almost universally? Why?
Doctors were penalized for advocating for evidence-based solutions. Narratives and ideas diverging from the singular voice of the World Health Organization were actively censored on social media. Scientists and our societies as a whole have been discouraged from solutions based on observations and data. We have been told the empirical evidence of age related immunity, and rare asymptomatic transmission is suspect or wrong. We all need to follow the “expert” guidelines regarding school closures, restrictions, and masks. The ineffective “lockdown” strategy should be followed at the costs of the economic and psychological damages – without question. Why?
It is clear there is a new paradigm which emerged with the COVID pandemic and is permeating throughout our society. We must blindly follow the centralized authoritative constructs of our medical and political leadership without questioning the reasons. Why?
If we, as a society, expect a centralized planned economy and centralized planned solution provider to excel beyond the capacity of a free and innovative society based on our founding principles, we surely have some more dark days ahead of us. The problems of tomorrow, including climate change, will be solved through prosperity: through creative and innovative solutions and chance discoveries and not through the dictates of a centralized neo-socialist oligarchy. We need faith in ourselves and each other. Miracles do happen. Society will solve problems and move forward. We just can’t expect it all to be planned.
Truth, COVID, and Climate Change
As an American citizen it seems odd to defiantly defend our cherished freedoms of liberty, free speech, and freedom of the press during one of the most difficult periods in our nation’s history. Our Constitution was made for these trying times and our God-given rights safeguard our nation. However, we are currently facing an “invisible enemy” which seemed to sprout up from nowhere. We should realize the seeds of this war were planted many years ago and we blindly trusted our institutions to protect and defend us from the unseen and unknown. As we uncover root causes for the COVID crisis, and seek answers to Climate Change, we need to recognize there may be some unpleasant truths unearthed in the process.
The good news is America (and the world) has been through much worse – and will emerge from the COVID and Climate Change “crisis” stronger than ever. As we look to each other and our future, the Truth should guide us as an indispensable keystone for the pillars of freedom. We need to embrace the Truth and recognize our own limitations and shortcomings in foresight and understanding. The Truth demands debate and discourse. However, it’s strength resides in the ability to withstand the counterbalancing forces against it. Our individual liberties protect, and are protected by, the Truth.
Unfortunately, citizens around the world have been bombarded with a fear-inducing COVID and Climate Change media onslaught which seems more like propaganda. Is there a standard narrative being pushed down? We should recognize we are being tested, and seek refuge in the Truth by sharing our thoughts and challenges with each other. More than ever, we need to rely on ourselves, our families, our friends, our faith – and the goodness of fellow citizens of the world. We are all in this together.
The Global Warming Model and Climate Change Initiatives
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. Most climate change initiatives are based on the models and research findings from this UN group. They rely on the DICE model:
The Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, referred to as the DICE model or Dice model, is a computer-based integrated assessment model developed by 2018 Nobel Laureate William Nordhaus that “integrates in an end-to-end fashion the economics, carbon cycle, climate science, and impacts in a highly aggregated model. link
The IPCC recommends substantial initiatives to target a 1.5 vs. 2.0 degree increase in temperature by 2050 per the DICE model.
Worldwide, thousands of climate change initiatives are guided by these targets. Given the complexity of the model and reliance on dozens of input parameters, many scientists and policy makers question its accuracy… Per the Heritage Foundation:
- The EPA uses unreliable estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC)
- The integrated assessment models that the EPA uses are far too sensitive to assumptions to be used in devising economic regulations.
- The DICE model is based on an extremely unrealistic time horizon that sums damages over the course of 300 years.
Forecasting models can be incredibly valuable. However, they are often wrong and subject to significant errors and miscalculations – as we have seen with the initial models for COVID-19. For COVID-19, the early models projected deaths far exceeding observed rates. The result has been an extreme over-reaction with lockdowns, business mandates, and restrictions- all causing unnecessary economic and social damage. With the benefit of empirical data and observations, the COVID model’s initial projections look absurd.
The DICE model has dozens of variables – each of which can have a significant impact on the forecast accuracy. Today, those underlying variables are often unknown or fluid – constantly changing over time. If we treat climate change as a crisis (like COVID), we risk over-reactions and miscalculations at the extremes. Climate change is happening. It always has…but climate change is not a crisis. We can move forward empowered by data and observations, and course correct along the way. There will be incredible innovations in the next 80 years which will make the problems we face today seem trivial.
To move ahead, we need a model that incorporates as much near real-time data as possible. With the advances in data, AI, 5G, and the internet of things, we measure our progress incrementally and adjust our forecasts and actions to adapt to the changing variables, observations, and innovations. Blindly following massive efforts like the great leap of the “Green New Deal” is likely to create drastic, unnecessary disruptions to our economy and society. If far-left politicians succeed in changing the narrative to make climate a “crisis”, they will push society to cede rights and responsibility to government to “save the world”. The probability and consequences of over-reaction is monumental.
Let’s move forward with relentless determination and drive towards our climate goals…but learn and iterate along the way. With data and observations we can adapt models and our efforts accordingly. We don’t need a great leap… We need steps in the right direction through innovation, education, and discourse.