The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. Most climate change initiatives are based on the models and research findings from this UN group. They rely on the DICE model:

The Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, referred to as the DICE model or Dice model, is a computer-based integrated assessment model developed by 2018 Nobel Laureate William Nordhaus that “integrates in an end-to-end fashion the economics, carbon cycle, climate science, and impacts in a highly aggregated model. link

The IPCC recommends substantial initiatives to target a 1.5 vs. 2.0 degree increase in temperature by 2050 per the DICE model.

Worldwide, thousands of climate change initiatives are guided by these targets. Given the complexity of the model and reliance on dozens of input parameters, many scientists and policy makers question its accuracy… Per the Heritage Foundation:

• The EPA uses unreliable estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC)
• The integrated assessment models that the EPA uses are far too sensitive to assumptions to be used in devising economic regulations.
• The DICE model is based on an extremely unrealistic time horizon that sums damages over the course of 300 years.

Forecasting models can be incredibly valuable. However, they are often wrong and subject to significant errors and miscalculations – as we have seen with the initial models for COVID-19. For COVID-19, the early models projected deaths far exceeding observed rates. The result has been an extreme over-reaction with lockdowns, business mandates, and restrictions- all causing unnecessary economic and social damage. With the benefit of empirical data and observations, the COVID model’s initial projections look absurd.

The DICE model has dozens of variables – each of which can have a significant impact on the forecast accuracy. Today, those underlying variables are often unknown or fluid – constantly changing over time. If we treat climate change as a crisis (like COVID), we risk over-reactions and miscalculations at the extremes. Climate change is happening. It always has…but climate change is not a crisis. We can move forward empowered by data and observations, and course correct along the way. There will be incredible innovations in the next 80 years which will make the problems we face today seem trivial.

To move ahead, we need a model that incorporates as much near real-time data as possible. With the advances in data, AI, 5G, and the internet of things, we measure our progress incrementally and adjust our forecasts and actions to adapt to the changing variables, observations, and innovations. Blindly following massive efforts like the great leap of the “Green New Deal” is likely to create drastic, unnecessary disruptions to our economy and society. If far-left politicians succeed in changing the narrative to make climate a “crisis”, they will push society to cede rights and responsibility to government to “save the world”. The probability and consequences of over-reaction is monumental.

Let’s move forward with relentless determination and drive towards our climate goals…but learn and iterate along the way. With data and observations we can adapt models and our efforts accordingly. We don’t need a great leap… We need steps in the right direction through innovation, education, and discourse.