As testing continues to increase around the US, much of the media and public attention has focused on the number of COVID positive cases. While important to understand the scope of the disease spread, many underlying conditions have evolved in recent weeks. Due to a combination of wider testing availability and improved understanding, early identification and treatment options have contributed to falling hospitalization and fatality rates.

Florida has experienced a significant uptick in cases in recent weeks with total cases approaching 400,000 with about 5,500 deaths for a ~1.4% CFR. By comparison New York’s CFR is about 7.6%. Why the huge disparity? The recency of the Florida case spike unfortunately means many cases have not been “resolved”…as deaths general occur 2-3 weeks after the onset and diagnosis of a COVID case. However, more importantly, the variance between NY and FL can be attributed to the scope of testing during the outbreak and the average age of persons diagnosed with COVID.

Below is a chart showing the hospitalization and case fatality rates for approximately 380,000 cases in Florida.

An interesting observation s just how low the fatality rate is for COVID positive people below the age of 50 – and even at the age of 60, 98-99% of patients recover.

The age of the Florida residents tested has continued to decline in recent weeks. The average age of tested patients is 40 in July, and 75% or 136,000 residents tested are under 55. While many COVID positive people in Florida may need hospitalization in the coming weeks, given the demographics we should not expect to see anything close to the fatality rates seen in New York.