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The Magic of Discovery

The Magic of Discovery

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Throughout human civilization we have discovered new worlds, new inventions, and new medical breakthroughs by chance. They are called “miracles” or “surprise discoveries”…and they happen all the time. Just two days ago, scientists surprisingly discovered life 900 meters below an Antarctic ice shelf:

“To their astonishment, they discovered a hidden ecosystem of sponges and other unidentified aquatic life forms living on the underside of a large boulder in the freezing, pitch-black depths.

It is the first time that immobile organisms such as these have ever been observed beneath the Antarctic ice shelf and their presence has left scientists scratching their heads.

“There’s all sorts of reasons they shouldn’t be there,” said researcher Huw Griffiths.”

https://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/news/343926/scientists-make-surprise-antarctic-life-discovery

Discovery is often a messy process. It can’t all be planned. Frequently, we find something different than we originally intended.

As COVID hit and the world was scrambling for answers, many doctors and scientists were told not to observe and not to experiment, but to obey and follow top down guidelines – almost universally? Why?

Doctors were penalized for advocating for evidence-based solutions. Narratives and ideas diverging from the singular voice of the World Health Organization were actively censored on social media. Scientists and our societies as a whole have been discouraged from solutions based on observations and data. We have been told the empirical evidence of age related immunity, and rare asymptomatic transmission is suspect or wrong. We all need to follow the “expert” guidelines regarding school closures, restrictions, and masks. The ineffective “lockdown” strategy should be followed at the costs of the economic and psychological damages – without question. Why?

It is clear there is a new paradigm which emerged with the COVID pandemic and is permeating throughout our society. We must blindly follow the centralized authoritative constructs of our medical and political leadership without questioning the reasons. Why?

If we, as a society, expect a centralized planned economy and centralized planned solution provider to excel beyond the capacity of a free and innovative society based on our founding principles, we surely have some more dark days ahead of us. The problems of tomorrow, including climate change, will be solved through prosperity: through creative and innovative solutions and chance discoveries and not through the dictates of a centralized neo-socialist oligarchy. We need faith in ourselves and each other. Miracles do happen. Society will solve problems and move forward. We just can’t expect it all to be planned.

Are masks working?

Are masks working?

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As COVID-19 has grown into a global pandemic, one of the most obvious visual impacts has been the predominance of masks in public settings. In most western societies the prevalence of masks has gone from near-zero to ubiquitous. Masks now provide a clear signal of virtue of concern for the health and safety of ourselves and others. “I am not only protecting myself…I am protecting you from me.” But beyond the clear signal of projecting virtue, are masks really helping much?

As the world’s leading voice for science during the pandemic, maybe we should look to The World Health Organization (WHO) for answers.

WHO has been studying respiratory viruses for decades:

At the beginning of 1963 a system for collecting and distributing laboratory and epidemiological information on virus diseases was organized by the World Health Organization… By the end of 1973, 106 laboratories in 45 countries were participating in the scheme.

https://apps.who.int/iris/

As of 1973, the number of coronavirus cases reported from these laboratories was very small (<10 cases) per year. However, they were on the radar as respiratory viruses that needed observation. Before 2003, two human coronaviruses were known to cause mild illness, such as common cold. However, with the emergence of SARS, coronaviruses, their origins, and transmission were studied in much more detail.

As a result, with over 50 years of respiratory virus research, and many studies of related coronaviruses as a foundation, the World Health Organization (WHO) was very well positioned to understand the scope, nature, transmission vectors, and the potential impact of COVID-19 as it emerged. (The full SARS-Cov2-genome was identified, sequenced, and underwent testing by mid-January 2020. Diagnostic detection study. )

On March 30th, 2020, a couple months after the widespread outbreak began, the WHO update stated:

  • WHO officials do not recommend mask wearing for healthy members of the general population.
  • Masks should be worn by those with the disease or those in close contact with those infected.

In June 2020, they updated their guidance, and now almost a year later, government mask mandates for the public are widespread… Why?

The chaotic environment of initial panic was obviously a contributing factor. When the “unknown virus” first emerged out of Wuhan and spread across the world, everyone was looking to protect themselves and loved ones. Our scientific, medical, and government leaders sought to shield us from the “unknown” and invisible enemy which was rapidly becoming a threat for everyone.

There were urgent government purchases of personal protective equipment (PPE). In California, Governor Newsom purchased about $1B of PPE from a Chinese company during a peak of the concern. (Many public details of the purchase have remained scarce. However, nearly $500 million worth of N95 masks were purchased for $3.30 each… considerably more than the average retail price per unit at Home Depot today.)

Obviously, during the initial panic we can assume the urgency of the situation required swift and decisive action – and the expediency outweighed the economic concerns. Ventilators, masks, and other PPE were in high demand. However, given the lack of a realized mask (or toilet paper) shortage, many prior responses and decisions made in the heat of the moment can now be seen as a clear overreaction. Did we…and do we need all those masks?

In the United States, if we look at states with and without high levels of mask use, it is clear there is no apparent justification for widespread mask mandates. The North Dakota and South Dakota article is one example. Florida has had no statewide mask mandate and has seen a lower infection rate than most other states which have mandates.

In addition, most mask mandates provide limited guidance as to the type of face covering. More often than not, people are not required to have face protection to any particular standard (such an N95). Also, many masks are designed for single use, but reused. It often appears masks are “just for show”. Here are the existing CDC guidelines for comparisons sake.

To use an exaggerated example: If you had allergies, would you install a fence keep pollen from your neighbors’ trees out of your yard? Or your trees’ pollen from theirs? As more research comes out, it will likely be apparent effectively containing a virus is a very complex and perhaps a futile exercise at many levels. Virus particles are incredibly small and can pass through many masks with ease. Even N95 masks only reduce a portion of the particulate matter. Duration of exposure in indoor vs. outdoor environments and ventilation are also critical factors in transmission.

This article is not intended to advocate for the non-use of masks, but rather suggest that questioning mask mandates should be encouraged. We need more studies and greater confidence in mandates and lockdowns which affect us all. None of us have all the answers, and those claiming they do likely have other reasons for saying so. As citizens, we have a right, and duty to question the effectiveness of mask mandates, lockdowns, and other COVID restrictions.

Here are some recent studies and guidelines on mask effectiveness for further reading:

COVID-19 & Climate Change: The Connection

COVID-19 & Climate Change: The Connection

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There is substantial scientific evidence to connect human respiratory health with air pollution and climate.

There is solid scientific evidence to link COVID-19 with Climate Change – and the dangers of a combined media driven “crisis” are unimaginable. Both issues could be effectively managed with an informed public response. However, it seems many politicians will continue to push a “crisis” narrative to further manufacture fear, increase controls, and steal individual liberties.

As we have seen with COVID-19, the “cures” have been far worse than the disease. Lockdowns have proven ineffective and have largely been pushed by politicians who seem to be following an agenda vs. science. The interventionalist policies are thinly veiled power grabs which damage the economy and our livelihoods – making us all more dependent on government.

As the same people push a combined narrative and political/media blitz with COVID-19 and climate change, the implications to freedom, capitalism, and democracy are beyond serious. The stage has been set, and without public awareness and opposition, the world will be fast tracked to a global top-down framework of social and economic contracts where we are told what to think and how to live.

COVID-19 and Climate Change challenges ARE monumental, and solutions will impact us ALL. The question is: how do we solve these problems? In the US, republicans and democrats have adopted a polarizing path forward through each “crisis”. Given the magnitude of situation, and variances in approaches, it is clear the future will be substantially different depending on who wins the 2020 election and guides us forward.

For COVID-19, the Biden-Harris platform emphasizes control. We should control COVID-19 through testing, contact tracing, national mask mandates, and lockdowns. The Trump administration has championed individual freedoms and has largely deferred to governors to implement more localized restrictions while limiting federal interference. Trump has encouraged businesses and schools to reopen – and has supported treatment and vaccination initiatives. Both parties claim to be following the science.

With Climate Change, the approaches also sit in stark contrast. The Biden-Harris platform clearly outlines policy changes and controls to drive clean energy initiatives and draw down fossil fuel use – with a longer term vision towards the Green New Deal. Conversely, the Trump administration has shown substantial support for energy independence and innovation – with backing for coal, fracking, and the petroleum industry to support business and the economy.

Obviously, the priorities and path forward with either administration will have a substantive affect on all our daily lives.

What may not be as obvious, is the policy distinction between COVID-19, health, and climate change will blur in the coming weeks and months. Since there is a fundamental scientific connection – media will likely flock to the upcoming narrative in which COVID-19 and Climate Change are unified into a singular, monumental, global crisis. The story will be: To stop COVID-19 and protect human health, we need to draw down fossil fuel use and pollutants. Interestingly, the widespread COVID-19 outbreak and failed government responses have created a situation wherein previously drastic measures in the Green New Deal may seem much more reasonable in the near future. Driven by heightened media attention , I am sure an idealistic wave of environmental activists will rally to “save the world”.

The political and policy implications of this combined crisis will be largely defined by the timing – and who is in the White House. When will the media start pushing this narrative?

The Global Warming Model and Climate Change Initiatives

The Global Warming Model and Climate Change Initiatives

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. Most climate change initiatives are based on the models and research findings from this UN group. They rely on the DICE model:

The Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, referred to as the DICE model or Dice model, is a computer-based integrated assessment model developed by 2018 Nobel Laureate William Nordhaus that “integrates in an end-to-end fashion the economics, carbon cycle, climate science, and impacts in a highly aggregated model. link

The IPCC recommends substantial initiatives to target a 1.5 vs. 2.0 degree increase in temperature by 2050 per the DICE model.

Worldwide, thousands of climate change initiatives are guided by these targets. Given the complexity of the model and reliance on dozens of input parameters, many scientists and policy makers question its accuracy… Per the Heritage Foundation:

  • The EPA uses unreliable estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC)
  • The integrated assessment models that the EPA uses are far too sensitive to assumptions to be used in devising economic regulations.
  • The DICE model is based on an extremely unrealistic time horizon that sums damages over the course of 300 years.

Forecasting models can be incredibly valuable. However, they are often wrong and subject to significant errors and miscalculations – as we have seen with the initial models for COVID-19. For COVID-19, the early models projected deaths far exceeding observed rates. The result has been an extreme over-reaction with lockdowns, business mandates, and restrictions- all causing unnecessary economic and social damage. With the benefit of empirical data and observations, the COVID model’s initial projections look absurd.

The DICE model has dozens of variables – each of which can have a significant impact on the forecast accuracy. Today, those underlying variables are often unknown or fluid – constantly changing over time. If we treat climate change as a crisis (like COVID), we risk over-reactions and miscalculations at the extremes. Climate change is happening. It always has…but climate change is not a crisis. We can move forward empowered by data and observations, and course correct along the way. There will be incredible innovations in the next 80 years which will make the problems we face today seem trivial.

To move ahead, we need a model that incorporates as much near real-time data as possible. With the advances in data, AI, 5G, and the internet of things, we measure our progress incrementally and adjust our forecasts and actions to adapt to the changing variables, observations, and innovations. Blindly following massive efforts like the great leap of the “Green New Deal” is likely to create drastic, unnecessary disruptions to our economy and society. If far-left politicians succeed in changing the narrative to make climate a “crisis”, they will push society to cede rights and responsibility to government to “save the world”. The probability and consequences of over-reaction is monumental.

Let’s move forward with relentless determination and drive towards our climate goals…but learn and iterate along the way. With data and observations we can adapt models and our efforts accordingly. We don’t need a great leap… We need steps in the right direction through innovation, education, and discourse.

Data, Problem Solving, COVID-19, and Solutions

Data, Problem Solving, COVID-19, and Solutions

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Data. For the last 25 years in finance and technology I have used data to explore, uncover facts, and understand narratives about what is happening in different business environments and the world. Data has answers. It can tell stories and is an immensely powerful tool. Everything from simple facts to incredible sagas can all be discovered and learned from a myriad of data sources.

Just as with business problems, data can be used to understand COVID-19, identify issues, and develop solutions.. We can find answers using the same frameworks of knowledge and skill sets developed from the business world. At the fundamental level, the analysis is basically the same.

I was propelled into data analytics working at an overburdened call center during the dot-com heyday. One reoccurring question management constantly asked was: “Why are our call volumes up?”…or rather “What’s hitting us?!?!!!!”. They wanted answers to fix things that were broken…and improve service, now! They would hear about issues from the floor of associates and supervisors shouting heads-ups, or exchanging comments and notes. But it was chaotic…it was a mess. Management was shooting in all directions. There had to be a better way.

When I began as a broker in 1997, the company was experiencing hyper-growth. We were breaking volume records every other day. Business was booming and the call center was constantly playing catch up. We couldn’t hire and train people fast enough. Hold times were atrocious. Within the midst of ticker tape light boards and screens showing hour-long phone queues, I and other front line reps were tackling new customer issues every five or ten minutes throughout an entire shift…plus overtime. We did all this while dealing with a bubbling cauldron lottery of frustrated and abusive customers – any one call could single-handedly ruin your day.

At one point in the chaos, a director pulled me aside and tasked me with getting answers and developing solutions to improve the customer experience. “Figure it out” was the marching order. The relief of being off the phones was awesome…no more aggravated customers directly venting frustrations all day. I had a project – to find answers and fix things.

Fortunately, management was also driven to find solutions. They wanted to solve problems…but were often overwhelmed and needed ammunition. What’s hitting us? .What is happening? What can we do to solve this issue? …and these service delays? If they could inform Systems and Operations of issues, fix problems, and slow inquiry volumes, the staffing and service issues could be mitigated. At the time, initiatives were developed and championed on the fly, based on gut instinct. They didn’t have time for multivariate observational studies, surveys, or interviews…or detailed research projects. Answers were needed yesterday.

I wanted to help get answers…. I also wanted my project to succeed to stay off the phones. So I had to prove results – quickly. My first goal was to understand the scope and nature of the inquiries coming in. If we had 5,000 calls in a day, how many of those were operations related? …systems related? …deposit related? …password issues? …complaints?, etc. No one had any idea. We had hands-on experience talking with customers and understanding those issues at the most granular level. However, we couldn’t see the big picture.

I knew data could help us scope and understand the real customer impacts and opportunities to improve the situation. Armed with the facts, I could develop reports, get answers, and develop logical narratives about what was happening. This would enable management to allocate resources and promote initiatives with the highest impact.

I was fired up for the challenge.

I dove into whatever data I could find…beginning with the thousands of emails we were receiving each day. I developed queries to scope issues and segment emails….and discovered more and more insights. The first few days of the project turned into weeks, months, and years. I learned about call center reporting, databases, email systems, call routing, and workflows. Query tools and analytics became second nature. I worked with incredible engineers to develop pattern matching text queries to flag complaints, categorize, rank, and spot variances in email inquiry trends. We built call tracking to segment calls and provide real-time transparency and visibility to the front line managers. We created new workflows and service level dashboards to monitor and improve operations. Ultimately, I was able to build powerful forecasting tools to accurately predict inquiry volumes and staffing needs weeks and months ahead.

Over the years, I have worked with some incredible people and gained a broad understanding of call centers, customer service, marketing, operations, finance, technology, and business in general. I have become a business and data/analytics expert…and have been doing it for the last 20+ years. About half of that was with the original company, and then several startups in Silicon Valley and overseas.

The COVID-19 pandemic emerged as I was taking a break while recovering from a torn bicep and spine surgery. In late January, I recognized the potential severity of the COVID-19 outbreak as I followed the horrific stories out of Wuhan. I then discovered the Johns Hopkins dashboards and some other limited data sources. Given my experience working with analytics and recognizing the challenge ahead, I was compelled to dig deep into COVID-19 data, research, and focus my efforts to help.

Tragically, there have been over 22 million cases and almost 800,000 worldwide fatalities as I write this. One side benefit is there is now a mountain of data about cases, testing, treatments, hospitalizations, and deaths. However, it is messy and the data accuracy is constantly a consideration as I research. Countries and jurisdictions can distort numbers and even falsify reports to satisfy or communicate narratives. Sadly, the World Health Organization only uses reported numbers and does not have authority to validate any data. We missed an opportunity to stop it early – in China. We can and should do better – globally.

Over the past few months, I have spent countless hours digging through data, reading reports and listening to the medical and scientific experts. Stories have been uncovered… new narratives have emerged, and facts continue to surface.

On the news each night, broadcasts show the big numbers and we watch and listen hopelessly as things never seem to improve – and we must continue lockdowns, wear masks, and close businesses and schools. This should not be the case.

Societies and the world will be better off dealing with COVID-19 by seeing the big picture and calibrating initiatives and responses accordingly. Filtering through fearmongering headlines, the information overload can be overwhelming. However, there are answers in the data. We will get through this crisis by learning – understanding and developing solutions to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and any future viruses to our health, well-being, and societies. I hope to help by uncovering and sharing facts and narratives, and providing answers and solutions. We will be better prepared next time. The story will end well.

COVID-19, Air Pollution, & Wuhan, China.

COVID-19, Air Pollution, & Wuhan, China.

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Air pollution can significantly exacerbate both the transmission and severity of COVID-19: Studies have shown airborne particulate matter pollution (PM 2.5 and PM 10) can act as transmission vehicles greatly extending the range of aerosol viruses in both indoor and outdoor environments. The microscopic viruses can essentially hitch a ride on airborne pollution or particulate matter and be carried to hosts at extended distances. In addition to acting as a transmission extender and accelerant, air pollution can also damage the respiratory systems of people exposed to it. Many studies have shown fossil fuel pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), can cause both acute and/or chronic damage to the lungs and respiratory system depending on the intensity and duration of exposure.

Globally, one of the cities with the highest level of air pollution is Wuhan, China. The maps below show the level of PM 2.5 and SO2 in the worldwide atmosphere as of August 16, 2020:

Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM 2.5)

windy.com PM 2.5

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)

windy.com SO2

Examining the areas with the largest amount of air pollution, it is clear there are certain “hot spots” with significantly more air pollution than others. Due to China’s rapid economic expansion, the extent to which they have relied on fossil fuels, and coal in particular, has risen dramatically. As a result, due to lax environmental controls, air pollution has routinely increased to dangerous levels across the country.

Below are the Sulfur Dioxide levels in Wuhan on 8/17/2020. Wuhan’s SO2 pollution levels exceeded 1000 mg/m2 – 10x the current levels and the highest in the world during the initial COVID-19 outbreak in Jan/Feb 2020.

As CNN reported over a year ago, in July, 2019, the smog and air quality was so bad, Wuhan residents actually participated in protests against a new garbage incineration plant:

Holding banners with slogans such as “we don’t want to be poisoned, we just need a breath of fresh air,” thousands of people took to the city’s streets over two weeks in June and July calling for the suspension of plans to build the plant.
“We are fearful that the plant is too close to residence area,” one protester in the city of 10 million people told state media. Others expressed concern that emissions could worsen air pollution and harm residents’ health.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/10/asia/china-wuhan-pollution-problems-intl-hnk/index.html

Now, as we note the correlation between air pollution and the transmission of airborne viruses – in conjunction with a very densely populated city, it is apparent that Wuhan, China was actually one of THE WORST PLACES IN THE WORLD FOR COVID-19 TO BREAK OUT AND SPREAD. Tragically, not only was COVID-19 transmission exacerbated, but due to years of chronic exposure to air pollutants, the Wuhan residents were especially vulnerable to respiratory illnesses. Wuhan’s COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality rates were likely the highest of anywhere in the world.

A few related studies:

*Latest from UC Davis 8/7/20: COVID-19 death rates increase due to long-term exposure to PM2.5

A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.

  1. The short-term effects of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Jinan, China

Air pollutants, especially PM2.5, PM10, CO and SO2, can increase the risk of ILI in Jinan. The government should create regulatory policies to reduce the level of air pollutants and remind people to practice preventative and control measures to decrease the incidence of ILI on pollution days.

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-019-7607-2

2. Effects of air pollutants on the transmission and severity of respiratory viral infections

Particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the outdoor air pollutants that are major factors in diseases, causing especially adverse respiratory effects in humans.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211639/

3. Can atmospheric pollution be considered a co-factor in extremely high level of SARS-CoV-2 lethality in Northern Italy?

In conclusion, it is well known that pollution impairs the first line of defense of upper airways, namely cilia (Cao et al., 2020), thus a subject living in an area with high levels of pollutant is more prone to develop chronic respiratory conditions and suitable to any infective agent. Moreover, as we previously pointed out, a prolonged exposure to air pollution leads to a chronic inflammatory stimulus, even in young and healthy subjects.

This, in our opinion, may partly explain a higher prevalence and lethality of a novel, very contagious, viral agent such as SARS-CoV-2, among a population living in areas with a higher level of air pollution, particularly if we consider the relatively high average age of this population. Among elderly living in such a region and affected by other comorbidities, the cilia and upper airways defenses could have been weakened both by age and chronic exposure to air pollution, which, in turn, could facilitate virus invasion by allowing virus reaching lower airways. Subsequently, a dysregulated, weak immune system, triggered by chronic air pollution exposure may lead to ARDS and eventually death, particularly in case of severe respiratory and cardiovascular comorbidities.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7128509/

Respiratory Viruses and SARS-Cov-2

Respiratory Viruses and SARS-Cov-2

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As a respiratory virus, SARS-Cov-2 shares many of the same attributes and other commonly occurring viruses, such as influenza and pneumonia. A recent article on NCBI provides a very good overview of our understandings of COVID-19: (Source)

Viral respiratory infections result when a virus infects the cells of the respiratory mucosa; this can occur when virus particles are inhaled or directly contact a mucosal surface of the nose or eyes. Infected individuals shed virus into the environment by coughing or sneezing or even during quiet breathing. Virus shed during coughing and sneezing is often present in large droplets that fall out of the air within a short distance. If the virus falls on a surface and survives, it can be transmitted when someone touches the infected surface and then touches their nose, eyes, or mouth. Virus is also spread by the airborne route in the form of small (<5 μm) droplet nuclei that can remain suspended for long periods of time and can be inhaled into the lower respiratory tract.

Different viruses typically target general areas of the respiratory system. The body’s natural defense mechanisms filter out many pathogens. However, depending on the degree of exposure and defenses of the respiratory tract, some viruses can still get through to host cells.

When a person is infected with a respiratory virus, there is an incubation period before onset of clinical signs and symptoms. During the incubation period, the virus attaches to and infects cells, replicates its genome, and spreads to infect adjacent cells. The incubation period for influenza is short, typically 1–2 days, whereas for SARS-CoV-2, it is 4.5–5.8 day

During the incubation period, our bodies and respiratory defenses respond through our innate immune system.

The immune system responds to viral infection with cellular and humoral (antibodies, complement, and antimicrobial peptides) responses. These responses are initiated by the innate immune system, which recognizes pathogens and induces production of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines. This is followed by responses of the adaptive immune system, which consists of T cells, which can directly kill virus-infected cells, and B cells, which produce pathogen-specific antibodies in the serum and at mucosal surfaces

Many people who contract the virus are able to successfully mount an effective response – especially those under the age of 60. The extent to which are natural innate defenses can successfully mitigate symptoms and severity is still being researched and investigated.

The spectrum of disease with SARS-CoV-2 ranges from asymptomatic infection to severe, often fatal disease. Patients with mild disease (80%) have fever, cough, sore throat, loss of smell, headache, and body aches. Moderate illness is characterized by involvement of the lower respiratory tract.

As of August 10, 2020, over 20 million individuals have contracted COVID-19 and almost 750,000 have perished. We have the opportunity to learn, understand, and prevent more pain and suffering – worldwide.

Read the full article: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7237932/

COVID-19 : The Path Forward

COVID-19 : The Path Forward

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COVID-19 (SARS-Cov2) has become the greatest challenge we have faced in a generation. With over 20 million cases and 750,000 deaths, it has presented the world with a myriad of issues – from the direct health concerns to economics and government policies. Countless doctors, scientists, healthcare workers, and others have combated the virus from the front lines. Every case and death has been a tragedy. But we can learn from our experience: What works? What didn’t work? In addition to each first hand experience, we are gaining data, and practical insights and knowledge about COVID-19. Today, we can better understand the underlying factors driving the pandemic.

Our collective efforts give the world the opportunity to develop solutions to ultimately stop the damage COVID-19 is doing to our way of life. Some fundamental findings:

Each country and locality has adopted measures to combat COVID-19. At one extreme, residents were forcefully confined behind welded doors in government mandated quarantines. At the other extreme…individuals were simply empowered with information and suggested guidelines – without direct government restrictions.

Given the mounting collective knowledge of these varying outcomes, what can we learn? Can lockdowns be effective? -at what cost to society, public health, and economies? Do we really need to wait for a vaccine miracle? -or shut down entire communities? What common sense solutions can we find? Surely we can find ways to protect ourselves and our societies without compromising our principles and livelihoods.

This site will explore those issues…and relentlessly drive towards better insights and better solutions.

-Richard